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Equity Clock - Market Outlook for September 30, 2022
An inside doji candlestick following an outside reversal day for Volatility Index (VIX) is hinting of a peak for the so-called “fear gauge.”
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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The Markets
Equity markets remained on edge on Thursday as the euphoria surrounding the bond market rebound on Wednesday was short-lived. The S&P 500 Index slipped back to the lows of the year, falling by 2.11% to close within mere points of the June intraday low at 3636. The relative strength Index (RSI) briefly slipped back into oversold territory below 30, although early indications remain that momentum indicators are bottoming. The MACD histogram has started to narrow as the spread between the technical indicator and the signal line converges on one another. Major moving averages continue to roll over, providing levels of resistance over multiple timeframes that warrant selling into. Despite the break of the June lows, we are still on the lookout for evidence of a shift of the intermediate-term trend, as naive as that may sound given the overwhelming negativity in the market, but waiting for that turn in order to ramp up equity exposure for the traditional seasonal strength that spans the last couple of months of the year remains prudent.We have ample cash/bonds in our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio and in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio that we manage on behalf of clients in partnership with Castlemoore, but we are anxious to put this cash hoard to work in stocks given the extremes that many market metrics are flashing. Theoretically, we are near that turning point, particularly as we enter the new month and quarter, but we can’t rely solely on theory or what is normal in what is clearly an abnormal fundamental backdrop with the Fed showing its greatest aggression in decades. This market is in desperate need of a sentiment refresh.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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