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Equity Clock

Equity Clock - Market Outlook for October 14, 2022

Reversal sessions in the equity market to the magnitude realized on Thursday are very rare, but they typically indicate indecision resulting in a spotty track record of forward returns for stocks.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF (NASD:FTXO) Seasonal Chart

First Trust Nasdaq Bank ETF (NASD:FTXO) Seasonal Chart

iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (NYSE:IAK) Seasonal Chart

iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (NYSE:IAK) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ETF (NYSE:EUSA) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI USA Equal Weighted ETF (NYSE:EUSA) Seasonal Chart

AdvisorShares DoubleLine Value Equity ETF (AMEX:DBLV) Seasonal Chart

AdvisorShares DoubleLine Value Equity ETF (AMEX:DBLV) Seasonal Chart

Stantec, Inc. (TSE:STN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Stantec, Inc. (TSE:STN.TO) Seasonal Chart

Wesco Intl, Inc. (NYSE:WCC) Seasonal Chart

Wesco Intl, Inc. (NYSE:WCC) Seasonal Chart

Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE:TARO) Seasonal Chart

Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NYSE:TARO) Seasonal Chart

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CCO) Seasonal Chart

Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CCO) Seasonal Chart

Champion Iron Ltd. (TSE:CIA.TO) Seasonal Chart

Champion Iron Ltd. (TSE:CIA.TO) Seasonal Chart

SNC-Lavalin Group, Inc. (TSE:SNC.TO) Seasonal Chart

SNC-Lavalin Group, Inc. (TSE:SNC.TO) Seasonal Chart

Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSE:SCHV) Seasonal Chart

Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF (NYSE:SCHV) Seasonal Chart

Invesco KBW Bank ETF (NASD:KBWB) Seasonal Chart

Invesco KBW Bank ETF (NASD:KBWB) Seasonal Chart

Mattel, Inc. (NASD:MAT) Seasonal Chart

Mattel, Inc. (NASD:MAT) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Life Companies Split Corp. (TSE:LFE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Life Companies Split Corp. (TSE:LFE.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO Equal Weight U.S. Banks Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZUB.TO) Seasonal Chart

BMO Equal Weight U.S. Banks Hedged to CAD Index ETF (TSE:ZUB.TO) Seasonal Chart

Metlife, Inc. (NYSE:MET) Seasonal Chart

Metlife, Inc. (NYSE:MET) Seasonal Chart

Illumina, Inc. (NASD:ILMN) Seasonal Chart

Illumina, Inc. (NASD:ILMN) Seasonal Chart

PNC Financial Services Gr (NYSE:PNC) Seasonal Chart

PNC Financial Services Gr (NYSE:PNC) Seasonal Chart

 

 

 

Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio


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The Markets

Stocks surged on Thursday following a reversal in the trajectory of the US Dollar and as market participant brace for the start of earnings season on Friday.  The S&P 500 Index surged by 2.60%, reversing sharp early day losses that followed another hot read of inflationary pressures in the US.  The benchmark bounced from support at 3500 to retake levels above the recently broken June lows, charting an outside reversal candlestick and raising doubt over whether the breakdown realized in the first half of this week was legitimate.  Momentum indicators are curling back higher, instantly showing a positive divergence compared to price and suggesting that selling pressures are waning.  Major moving averages are directly overhead, including the 20-day moving average at 3710, a short-term hurdle that has rejected each rally attempt since the middle of August.  The declining 50-day moving average at 3944 remains the significant threat overhead, according to our intermediate process, providing a hurdle to sell into in order to alleviate equity exposure so long as this negative intermediate trajectory persists.  The 50-day moving average is poised to cross back below its 100-day moving average, an event that was last triggered on February 24th, which, coincidentally also saw a significant reversal session in stocks.  From our experience, reversal sessions, such as what was observed on Thursday, seem to occur quite often around moving average crossover events, something that may be chalked up to a reactionary response from trading algorithms that rely heavily on major moving averages in their process.

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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Seasonal Chart J P Morgan Chase & Co Seasonal Chart Wells Fargo & Company Seasonal Chart Morgan Stanley Seasonal Chart Citigroup Inc. Seasonal Chart PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (The) Seasonal Chart U.S. Bancorp Seasonal Chart FIRST REPUBLIC BANK Seasonal Chart Enzo Biochem, Inc. Seasonal Chart

 

S&P 500 Index

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TSE Composite

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