Domestic equity benchmarks showing reaction to a highly pivotal point at the 50-week moving average, but a couple of risk metrics will provide the cue as to whether the market will realize heightened risk-aversion during this off-season for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
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The Markets
Stocks pulled back slightly to start the week as investors take a look at the lay of the land to determine the impacts of the evolving tariff fight and the appropriate valuation of stocks following the correction that has played out since February. The S&P 500 Index shed nearly two-thirds of one percent, showing reaction to a point of horizontal resistance at 5650. The 200-day moving average remains around 100-points overhead, putting every technical trader on watch for potential reaction to the variable hurdle. There remains an implied cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800, corresponding to the upper limit of the cloud of major moving averages that was broken in March, that would likely require a catalyst to break (eg. progress towards a trade deal with China); without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. We were enticed to use the strength through the end of last week to start legging out of equity allocations heading into the offseason for stocks that begins at this time of year as we brace for the next evolution of the intermediate-term trend in the equity market that is still leaning negative. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid, but we have found rotation/buying candidates in recent weeks amidst this market tumult.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
