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Seasonal Start
Bank of Montreal (TSE:BMO) Seasonal Chart
BANK OF MONTREAL COM NPV (BMO.TO) Seasonality
Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 6 and a sell date of December 7, investors have benefited from a total return of 377.01% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.
Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of March 12 and a sell date of April 2, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 75.63% with positive results in 10 of those periods.
The buy and hold return for the past 10 years was 198.16%.
Average Daily Return over past 10 years
| 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
| Average | 0.2% | -0.11% | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.05% | -0.02% | 0.14% |
| Up Days | 139 | 120 | 120 | 131 | 131 | 134 | 137 | 120 | 114 | 135 |
| Down Days | 111 | 132 | 128 | 119 | 115 | 110 | 112 | 127 | 129 | 114 |
Monthly Averages over past 14 years:
| Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | June | July | Aug. | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. |
| 3.75% | -2.81% | 1.95% | 1.94% | 2.96% | -0.33% | 3.44% | -2.2% | 2.17% | 2.3% | 2.28% | -0.47% |
According to Thackray’s 2010 Investors Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Financial Sector ranges from January 19th through to April 13th. The seasonality corresponds to the time when banks report fourth quarter earnings and provide favourable guidance for the coming year.
| Average Return | Positive Periods | % of Sessions Gaining Within Periods |
| 19.56% | 1 Out of Last 1 Period | 53.45% |
| 3.27% | 2 Out of Last 3 Periods | 51.4% |
| 1.51% | 3 Out of Last 5 Periods | 50.34% |
| 3.49% | 5 Out of Last 10 Periods | 49.82% |
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Stocks mentioned in this post: BMO.TO
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