An extreme fluctuation in gasoline product supplied and production is raising questions pertaining to the demand backdrop in the energy market.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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First Trust Senior Loan Fund (NASD:FTSL) Seasonal Chart

IQ Hedge Market Neutral Tracker ETF (AMEX:QMN) Seasonal Chart

iShares Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond ETF (AMEX:HYGH) Seasonal Chart

Paychex, Inc. (NASD:PAYX) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Short Dow30 (NYSE:DOG) Seasonal Chart

United States Copper Fund (AMEX:CPER) Seasonal Chart

BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF (TSE:ZWB.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASD:SHV) Seasonal Chart

ProShares Short S&P500 (NYSE:SH) Seasonal Chart

TELUS Corp. (TSE:T.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASD:IEI) Seasonal Chart

The Travelers Cos., Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Seasonal Chart

 

Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio

 

The Markets

The gains in the equity market continue, despite further indications of degradation in the economy.  The S&P 500 Index gained just shy of one percent, reaching back to a key psychological level at 4000.  June’s downside gap between 3975 and 4020 that we have been referencing for weeks is now being closed, working to clear this zone as a threat to an upside move in the market.  A bottoming pattern is implied, but there is not enough to conclude that “the bottom” has been achieved nor that we are done with this intermediate trend of lower-lows and lower-highs.  The benchmark is trading the most above its 50-day moving average since March, which is a start, but a test of this moving average as support would be better, helping to provide the sense that there is firm support below the market, one that we can ramp up risk into.  Seasonally, we remain in what is traditionally the most volatile time of the year and during this period you want to assure that investment positions are well supported and that there is a fundamental backing that is conducive to providing a tailwind to an upside move.  This is not the time of year that you want to force a trade as things can shift rapidly.  With that being said, we are putting to work some of our cash hoard that we have held in the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio, but it is not in stocks, yet.  More on that below.

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite