Equity Clock - Market Outlook for August 24, 2022

The broader equity market is breaking down, but energy commodities and stocks are breaking out and that is our opportunity for the secondary period of seasonal strength in this space.

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Kimball Intl, Inc. (NASD:KBAL) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Global Energy Producers ETF (AMEX:FILL) Seasonal Chart

iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Japan ETF (AMEX:HEWJ) Seasonal Chart

JPMorgan Diversified Return US Mid Cap Equity ETF (AMEX:JPME) Seasonal Chart

Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio

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The Markets

Stocks drifted slightly lower on Tuesday as inflation concerns start to perk up again following the rebound in the price of oil. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by just over two-tenths of one percent after failing at the high of the session around previous horizontal resistance at 4170. The rollover of price and momentum continues following last week’s near perfect test of declining resistance at the 200-day moving average, a digestion that leaves levels down to the now rising 50-day moving average as being fair game. That intermediate hurdle can now be seen at 3973, or another 3.8% below present levels. The benchmark remains short-term oversold, which makes reducing equity exposure further in our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio unenticing at the present time, but a near-term bounce-back and test of Monday’s downside gap between 4195 and 4218 could provide an opportune time to look to trim risk further in order to mitigate the threat that a near-term pullback presents. The big Fed event at Jackson Hole at the end of the week presents a highly uncertain outcome for the broader market, one that we will not entertain for inclusion in our three-pronged approach, but we will watch the reaction to the news closely to determine if anything results that would alter the course that we have speculated for stocks.