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Equity Clock - Market Outlook for January 30, 2023
With losses typical during recessionary or rate hiking periods, we may have to dismiss the theory of “As goes January, so goes the year.”
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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The Markets
Stocks ended with gains to close the week as investors that have been betting on a downside move in the market continue to re-trench and neutralize negative bets. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of a quarter of one percent, increasingly moving above long-term declining declining trendline resistance that had capped the benchmark over the past year. It is now reaching back to December’s double-top resistance at 4100, the final line in the sand that is keeping the path of lower-highs intact. The 50-day moving average, indicative of the path of the intermediate-term trend, remains on the rise and appears poised to intersect with the 200-day moving average in the days ahead. It was back on March 14th of last year that the intermediate moving average crossed below its longer-term counterpart, an event, while foretelling of the longer-term declining path to come, triggered a swift 10% rise in prices through the back half of March before the more dominant path of lower-lows and lower-highs took hold in the month of April. The timeliness of moving average crossovers as buy or sell signals immediately following the result will forever remain questionable, but they can provide valuable insight on where the momentum in the market is and whether we should be prepared to be bullish or bearish on stocks for the intermediate timeframe that our strategy caters towards.For now, a neutral bias of domestic equities remains warranted as we wait for evidence of something sustainable to trade off of, whether on the positive or negative side.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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