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Equity Clock - Market Outlook for February 23, 2023
Over $1 Trillion were added to central bank reserves in January, giving lift to stocks. Perhaps the saying should be changed to “Don’t fight the Fed” to “Don’t fight global central bank liquidity.”
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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The Markets
Stocks struggled in the Wednesday session as investors digested the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 Index closed lower by less than two-tenths of one percent, placing pressure on the rising 50-day moving average that stands at 3979. The confluence of major moving averages between 3900 and 4000 remain in a position to provide a backstop to the recent market slide and it would take a break of this zone to suggest an elevated risk of a further market downturn as we progress through this period of seasonal weakness that typically finds a low around the start of March. MACD remains on a sell signal that was triggered a week ago Friday and questions are arising whether the breakout above horizontal resistance at 4100 was legitimate given that it has not been confirmed by an equivalent higher-high in momentum. Despite the breakout above resistance to enter the month of February, we have maintained our Neutral rating of the large-cap benchmark, but we continue to search for opportunities to take directional bets, either bullish or bearish (see our weekly chart books for ideas and insight).
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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