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Equity Clock - Market Outlook for March 2, 2023
While spreads become increasingly negative at the long end of the yield curve, the shorter-end has actually narrowed since the year began.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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The Markets
Stocks struggled in the first session of March as the cost of borrowing jumped higher amidst an ongoing repricing in the bond market following stronger than expected economic datapoints for the month of January. The S&P 500 Index ended lower by around half of one percent, slipping back below the 50-day moving average and reaching towards the still declining 200-day moving average. So far, this long-term variable hurdle that was broken as resistance in the middle of January is remaining unviolated as a point of potential support and, if this is sustained, it would send a strong signal to the market. Traditionally, it is well known on Wall Street that nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average and if you can merely avoid periods when price is below this threshold, you can perform very well in investment portfolios. Confirmation of support at this long-term hurdle would start to pull up on the negative slope and help to solidify a backstop to this market for a sustainable trade higher in prices into the spring.For now, the trend of the market in the short-term, as gauged by the declining 20-day moving average, is still negative and momentum indicators remain on a sell signal, as triggered by the bearish MACD crossover two and a half weeks ago. We’ll be watching the reaction of the market closely around these major moving averages and, until then, a neutral bias remains warranted.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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