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Equity Clock - Market Outlook for November 6, 2023
False breakdowns among bonds and stocks in recent weeks have shaken the bearish resolve in the market.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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The Markets
Stocks rose again on Friday to cap of the strongest week of the year for equity market performance, providing a stellar jump out of gate for the best six months of the year trade that runs between October 27th and May 5th. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of just over nine-tenths of one percent, moving above intermediate resistance at the declining 50-day moving average around 4350. The declining trend channel that spanned the past three months has been cracked, providing the setup for higher values into year-end, coinciding with positive end-of-year seasonality. The next level of significance on the upside is 4400, representing the hurdle that the benchmark peaked around in the middle of October. Downside hurdles in a position to support the market are now the 20 and 50-day moving averages, as well a this week’s upside gaps at 4320 and 4240. We have been persistent with our view that the risk-reward to accumulating stocks around the band of support between 4100 and 4200 and the performance this past week has proven that. The positive divergences with respect to MACD and RSI have taken these momentum indicators off of their negative paths that provided a bearish look to the market between the end of July and the start of October and a bullish bias is the prudent approach until the market can definitively show greater evidence of resistance than support over an intermediate timeframe; the intermediate path stemming from the low charted in October of 2022 remains that of higher-highs and higher-lows and a break of the short-term trend above 4400 would confirm this path remains intact.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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