Over the past two decades, the S&P 500 Index has averaged a loss of 0.5% in January with 55% of periods closing lower.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
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The Markets
Stocks slipped slightly into the final session of the year as portfolio managers concluded their year-end transactions, setting portfolios up for the new year ahead. The S&P 500 Index closed down by just over a quarter of one percent, continuing to knock on the door of the all-time high charted two years ago at 4800. Momentum indicators are increasingly rolling over from overbought territory charted through the middle of December with MACD crossing below its signal line. Momentum indicators continue to maintain characteristics of a bullish trend above their middle lines, but there are signs of upside exhaustion here, which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise following the phenomenal run off of the October low. The Santa Claus rally period stretches into the first few days of the new year, following which a softer period for equity market performance begins and it would not be surprising to see some digestion of prices beyond the first week of January. Points of support below the market remain plentiful, including previous resistance at 4600, along with rising major moving averages. The risk-reward is still not favourable to be adding new money at these heights, but you certainly do not want to be sellers of risk (stocks), yet. A time may come through the first quarter of the year when reducing risk may prove to be prudent, but, for now, sticking with the rising intermediate-term trend is appropriate.
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With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for January, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every January over their trading history. While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy. Below are the results:
And how about those securities that have never gained in this first month of the year, here they are:
*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned. We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.
Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.99.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
- No Significant Earnings Scheduled for Today
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
