Today (July 17th) marks the average peak to the summer rally timeframe for stocks.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
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The Markets
The summer rally for stocks continues to broaden out, but, with one session left to the traditionally upbeat mid-year timeframe, the time has come to be on the lookout for signs of upside exhaustion in order to start to take down risk exposure. The S&P 500 Index gained nearly two-thirds of one percent on Tuesday, achieving yet another fresh record close. The benchmark continues to reach further into overbought territory with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) firmly above 70, but this has yet to dissuade traders that are seeking to get involved with this bullish summer period for stocks. Major moving averages continue to fan out positively, providing a number of points of support below and maintaining characteristics of a bullish trend. Today (July 17th) marks the average peak to the summer rally period and the 3.46% return for the large-cap benchmark, thus far, certainly places this year’s mid-year performance among the best in the past five decades. The average gain for the approximately three-week span that began on June 27th is a mere 1.29%. While it is not unreasonable to see gains stretch into the month of August, something that is typical during election years, traditionally, looking for evidence of complacency and/or upside exhaustion in equity prices is prudent around this time of year in order to position for the period of volatility for stocks that follows. The date itself should not be the trigger, but rather near-term technicals. With breadth still showing signs of expanding for this mid-year period and upside targets that were derived from the breakouts of consolidation ranges on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) still unfulfilled, it would be difficult to stick a pin in this rally, yet. Planning out stops on current holdings is still viewed to be prudent to assure that risk mitigation efforts through August, September, and October are deployed effectively while looking for the opportunity to overweight bond market allocations.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
