The US Dollar Index is back to significant multi-year support in what has been a confounding move amidst this tariff war.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
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The Markets
Stocks managed to claw their way higher on Friday as investors refrained from holding any negative bets heading into the weekend given the uncertainty in the market that remains elevated. The S&P 500 Index ended higher on Friday by 1.81%, continuing to spend time in the gap that was opened in the prior Friday between 5300 and 5400. The huge moves in the market remain reminiscent of a bear market slide as investors rapidly price the market according to the uncertain conditions of the day. The benchmark is holding significant intermediate to long-term support at 4800 (the low that was recorded on Monday), presenting a highly important zone for the market. The pre-tariff announcement low at 5500 continues to be eyed as a point of resistance. There is a cap over this market in the range between 5500 and 5800 that would likely require a catalyst to break; without one, look for the sellers to step in around this zone. As has been pointed out, the benchmark remains in a precarious state heading into the second quarter, holding levels below the 200-day moving average, a variable hurdle that is now rolling over and providing a characteristic of an intermediate to long-term bearish trend. Unfortunately, this technical degradation in the market has come during this period of seasonal strength that runs through the month of April, therefore we are biased to let this favourable timeframe show what it is capable of before taking action; the more likely time that the next evolution of the declining intermediate-to-long-term trend for stocks should occur is through the off-season that starts in May. We continue to leave our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio as is, but we are cognizant of the need to do something ahead to mitigate the threat that the intermediate-term trend is portraying. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we had peeled back some of our Avoid listed candidates at the start of the week given how stretched to the downside that prices had become, preparing for the near-term recovery that has started to be realized following Wednesday’s bounce.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
