Investors not all that enthusiastic about stocks at present levels, although positioning is more balanced compared to the complacent levels that were recorded in January.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
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The Markets
Stocks drifted mildly higher on Thursday as investors found enthusiasm in earnings results from NVDIA. The S&P 500 Index closed up by four-tenths of one percent, once again testing the band of resistance between 5900 and 6100, effectively the all-time highs. The moves over the past couple of days, albeit slight, are providing hint that the short-term rising trend stemming from the April lows is coming to an end; last week’s break of the 50-hour moving average had suggested that the good times for stocks off of their mid-April low was over and a digestive period heading into the end of the second quarter is likely getting underway. Upside gap support around 5700 remains the critical level to watch over the short-term timeframe given a violation of the implied level of support would lead to a resumption of the strains that the intermediate-term trend has been portraying since the start of the year. We continue to like the way our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate or to Avoid is positioned, although we have significantly added to our list of Avoid candidates in the past week, presenting more of a balanced view of those groups that are working and worthy to buy into against those that are struggling to achieve buying demand and are at risk of faltering through the seasonally weak period in June. On the seasonal timeline, the foreseeable threat to stocks is the mean reversion move lower that is common through the middle of June as quarter-end portfolio rebalancing is enacted. In the meantime, the Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio is effectively mitigating the stresses that have bubbled up into the market, maintaining an appropriate risk profile, even with an elevated level of equity exposure than may have normally been sought heading towards the month of June.
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Soon to be released…
We are busy placing the finishing touches on our monthly report for June, providing subscribers with the insight to navigate the market through the month ahead. Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox in the day ahead.
Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
