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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) Seasonal Chart

Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE:BABA) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of February 17 and a Sell Date of May 15 has resulted in a geometric average return of 7.62% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 6 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 6 of those periods. This is an excellent rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 6 years by an average of 6.07% per year.

The seasonal timeframe is Inline with the period of seasonal strength for the Consumer Discretionary sector, which runs from October 17 to April 12. The seasonal chart for the broad sector is available via the following link: Consumer Discretionary Sector Seasonal Chart.

A word of caution: Only 6 years of data is available for shares of BABA, perhaps insufficient to create a seasonal profile that accurately gauges the seasonal tendencies influencing the investment. Ideally, while 20 years is preferred, at least 10 years of data is required to perform a seasonal analysis that is considered to be reliable for future seasonal periods.

Alibaba is the world’s largest online and mobile commerce company, measured by GMV (CNY 5.7 trillion/$846 billion for the fiscal year ended March 2019). It operates China’s most-visited online marketplaces, including Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer). Alibaba’s China marketplaces accounted for 68% of revenue in fiscal 2019, with Taobao generating revenue through advertising and other merchant data services and Tmall deriving revenue from commission fees. Additional revenue sources include international retail/wholesale marketplaces (7%), cloud computing (7%), digital media and entertainment platforms (6%), Cainiao logistics services (4%), and innovation initiatives/other (1%). Mobile GMV accounted for roughly 85% of consolidated GMV in fiscal 2019.

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