Equity Clock

Arithmetic Average Seasonal Chart

Geometric Average Seasonal Chart

KMX Relative to the S&P 500

KMX Relative to the Sector

% of Revenue Generated in Each Quarter

% of Free Cash Flow Generated in Each Quarter

% of Net Income Generated in Each Quarter

Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the Carmax Inc. (NYSE:KMX) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of June 19 and a Sell Date of September 15 has resulted in a geometric average return of 5.85% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 20 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 18 of those periods. This is an excellent rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 20 years by an average of 7.18% per year.

The seasonal timeframe correlates Poorly with the period of seasonal strength for the Consumer Discretionary sector, which runs from October 17 to April 12. The seasonal chart for the broad sector is available via the following link: Consumer Discretionary Sector Seasonal Chart.

CarMax sells, finances, and services used and new cars through a chain of around 250 used retail stores. It was formed in 1993 as a unit of Circuit City and spun off into an independent company in late 2002. Used-vehicle sales typically account for about 83% of revenue (79% in fiscal 2024 due to the chip shortage) and wholesale about 13% (19% in fiscal 2024), with the remaining portion composed of extended service plans and repair. In fiscal 2024, the company retailed and wholesaled 765,572, and 546,331 used vehicles, respectively. CarMax is the largest used-vehicle retailer in the US but still estimates that it had only about 3.7% US market share of vehicles 0-10 years old in 2023. It seeks over 5% share a few years from now. CarMax is based in Richmond, Virginia.

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Stocks mentioned in this post: KMX