Equity Clock

Arithmetic Average Seasonal Chart

Geometric Average Seasonal Chart

ETSY Relative to the S&P 500

ETSY Relative to the Sector

% of Revenue Generated in Each Quarter

% of Free Cash Flow Generated in Each Quarter

% of Net Income Generated in Each Quarter

Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the Etsy Inc. (NASD:ETSY) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of May 11 and a Sell Date of August 1 has resulted in a geometric average return of 22.07% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 7 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 7 of those periods. This is an excellent rate of success, but the return underperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 7 years by an average of 9.44% per year.

The seasonal timeframe correlates Poorly with the period of seasonal strength for the Consumer Discretionary sector, which runs from October 17 to April 12. The seasonal chart for the broad sector is available via the following link: Consumer Discretionary Sector Seasonal Chart.

A word of caution: Only 7 years of data is available for shares of ETSY, perhaps insufficient to create a seasonal profile that accurately gauges the seasonal tendencies influencing the investment. Ideally, while 20 years is preferred, at least 10 years of data is required to perform a seasonal analysis that is considered to be reliable for future seasonal periods.

Etsy operates a top-10 e-commerce marketplace operator in the U.S. and the U.K., with sizable operations in Germany, France, Australia, and Canada. The firm dominates an interesting niche, connecting buyers and sellers through its online market to exchange vintage and craft goods. With $13.5 billion in 2021 consolidated gross merchandise volume, the firm has cemented itself as one of the largest players in a quickly growing space, generating revenue from listing fees, commissions on sold items, advertising services, payment processing, and shipping labels. As of the end of 2021, the firm connected more than 96 million buyers and more than 7.5 million sellers on its marketplace properties: Etsy, Reverb (musical equipment), Elo7 (crafts in Brazil), and Depop (clothing resale).

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Stocks mentioned in this post: ETSY