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Five Below, Inc. (NASD:FIVE) Seasonal Chart

Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the Five Below, Inc. (NASD:FIVE) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of March 18 and a Sell Date of June 23 has resulted in a geometric average return of 17.73% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 8 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 7 of those periods. This is a very good rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 8 years by an average of 10.41% per year.

The seasonal timeframe correlates Poorly with the period of seasonal strength for the Consumer Discretionary sector, which runs from October 17 to April 12. The seasonal chart for the broad sector is available via the following link: Consumer Discretionary Sector Seasonal Chart.

A word of caution: Only 8 years of data is available for shares of FIVE, perhaps insufficient to create a seasonal profile that accurately gauges the seasonal tendencies influencing the investment. Ideally, while 20 years is preferred, at least 10 years of data is required to perform a seasonal analysis that is considered to be reliable for future seasonal periods.

Five Below is a value-oriented retailer that operated 900 stores in the United States as of the end of fiscal 2019. Catering to teen and preteen consumers, stores feature a wide variety of merchandise, the vast majority of which is priced at or below $6. The assortment focuses on discretionary items in several categories, particularly leisure (such as sporting goods, toys, and electronics; 50% of fiscal 2019 sales), fashion and home (for example, beauty products and accessories, home goods, and storage solutions; 31% of fiscal 2019 sales), and party and snack (including seasonal goods, candy, and beverages; 19% of fiscal 2019 sales). The chain had stores in 36 states as of the end of fiscal 2019, along with four distribution centers (with another slated to open in 2020).

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