Equity Clock

Arithmetic Average Seasonal Chart

Geometric Average Seasonal Chart

GBTC Relative to the S&P 500

Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (AMEX:GBTC) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of February 3 and a Sell Date of May 6 has resulted in a geometric average return of 36.07% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 9 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 9 of those periods. This is an excellent rate of success, but the return underperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 9 years by an average of 12.24% per year.

A word of caution: Only 9 years of data is available for shares of GBTC, perhaps insufficient to create a seasonal profile that accurately gauges the seasonal tendencies influencing the investment. Ideally, while 20 years is preferred, at least 10 years of data is required to perform a seasonal analysis that is considered to be reliable for future seasonal periods.

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Stocks mentioned in this post: GBTC