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Japan Tobacco, Inc. (OTCMKT:JAPAY) Seasonal Chart

Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the Japan Tobacco, Inc. (OTCMKT:JAPAY) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of January 21 and a Sell Date of May 18 has resulted in a geometric average return of 2.82% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 5 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 3 of those periods. This is a fair rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 5 years by an average of 16.84% per year.

The seasonal timeframe correlates Poorly with the period of seasonal strength for the Consumer Staples sector, which runs from April 25 to November 23. The seasonal chart for the broad sector is available via the following link: Consumer Staples Sector Seasonal Chart.

A word of caution: Only 5 years of data is available for shares of JAPAY, perhaps insufficient to create a seasonal profile that accurately gauges the seasonal tendencies influencing the investment. Ideally, while 20 years is preferred, at least 10 years of data is required to perform a seasonal analysis that is considered to be reliable for future seasonal periods.

Japan Tobacco is the third-largest tobacco company globally and owns a rich brand portfolio including Winston (non-U.S.), Camel (non-U.S.), and Mevius. The tobacco business contributes 90% of group sales and nearly all profits, with more than half generated by JTI, the overseas tobacco arm. JTI was created through the acquisition of R.J. Reynolds’ non-U.S. operations in 1999 and further expanded through multiple acquisitions, of which the purchase of Gallaher in 2007 was the most notable, doubling JTI’s sales. Pharmaceutical and processed food operations are the other businesses.

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