Equity Clock

Arithmetic Average Seasonal Chart

Geometric Average Seasonal Chart

SHOP Relative to the S&P 500

SHOP Relative to the Sector

% of Revenue Generated in Each Quarter

% of Free Cash Flow Generated in Each Quarter

% of Net Income Generated in Each Quarter

Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the Shopify, Inc. (NYSE:SHOP) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of May 11 and a Sell Date of September 15 has resulted in a geometric average return of 18.3% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 7 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 7 of those periods. This is an excellent rate of success, but the return underperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 7 years by an average of 11.79% per year.

The seasonal timeframe correlates Poorly with the period of seasonal strength for the Technology sector, which runs from October 9 to February 15. The seasonal chart for the broad sector is available via the following link: Technology Sector Seasonal Chart.

A word of caution: Only 7 years of data is available for shares of SHOP, perhaps insufficient to create a seasonal profile that accurately gauges the seasonal tendencies influencing the investment. Ideally, while 20 years is preferred, at least 10 years of data is required to perform a seasonal analysis that is considered to be reliable for future seasonal periods.

Shopify offers an e-commerce platform primarily to small and midsize businesses. The firm has two segments: subscription solutions (43% of fiscal 2018 revenue) and merchant solutions (57% of fiscal 2018 revenue). The subscription solutions segment allows Shopify merchants to conduct e-commerce on a variety of platforms, including the company’s website, physical stores, pop-up stores, kiosks, social networks (Facebook), and Amazon. Merchant solutions are add-on products for the platform that facilitate e-commerce and include Shopify Payments, Shopify Shipping, and Shopify Capital.

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Stocks mentioned in this post: SHOP