Equity Clock

Arithmetic Average Seasonal Chart

Geometric Average Seasonal Chart

ZTO Relative to the S&P 500

ZTO Relative to the Sector

% of Revenue Generated in Each Quarter

% of Free Cash Flow Generated in Each Quarter

% of Net Income Generated in Each Quarter

Seasonal Chart Analysis

Analysis of the ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE:ZTO) seasonal charts above shows that a Buy Date of December 26 and a Sell Date of May 21 has resulted in a geometric average return of 10.62% above the benchmark rate of the S&P 500 Total Return Index over the past 8 years. This seasonal timeframe has shown positive results compared to the benchmark in 7 of those periods. This is a very good rate of success and the return strongly outperforms the relative buy-and-hold performance of the stock over the past 8 years by an average of 16.7% per year.

The seasonal timeframe is Inline with the period of seasonal strength for the Industrials sector, which runs from October 29 to May 10. The seasonal chart for the broad sector is available via the following link: Industrials Sector Seasonal Chart.

A word of caution: Only 8 years of data is available for shares of ZTO, perhaps insufficient to create a seasonal profile that accurately gauges the seasonal tendencies influencing the investment. Ideally, while 20 years is preferred, at least 10 years of data is required to perform a seasonal analysis that is considered to be reliable for future seasonal periods.

ZTO Express is China’s largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 22.1% in 2022. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 77% voting rights as of June 30, 2023. ZTO’s strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 11.7% interest.

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Stocks mentioned in this post: ZTO