While election year cycle tendencies suggest strength for stocks into year-end, weakness through the first ten weeks of an election year is normal.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
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The Markets
Stocks pushed higher on Friday following the release of a stronger than expected report of employment in the US that calmed investor fears that the labor market is slowing. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of four-tenths of one percent, pressuring resistance at the July high of 4600. Despite momentum indicators triggering sell signals in recent days and the fact that we are well within the traditional tax-loss selling period that spans the first half of December, there is not much of a pullback to speak of, other than a sideways digestive pattern. Hints of a FOMO (“Fear of Missing Out”) trade is emerging with the VIX falling to the lowest level since the days prior to the pandemic, risking the production of a complacent market heading into the Santa Claus rally period, adding an element of vulnerability to prices through the positive period for equity prices at year-end. Levels of support below the benchmark remain plentiful and the mid-November upside open gap around 4450 remains the logical retracement zone should the broad market start to portray the weakness that is normal for the first half of December.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
