The inventory of existing homes for sale is rising at the fastest rate in decades, threatening to weigh on prices so long as demand fails to keep pace.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio
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The Markets
Stocks ended fairly flat on Friday as investors wait to gauge the impact that the imposition of tariffs will have on the economy when they are enacted in a little over a week from now. The S&P 500 Index closed up by just less than a tenth of one percent, remaining below support around the 200-day moving average (5749). The benchmark continues to hold above short-term declining trendline resistance from the past month, but near-term upside momentum is taking a bit of a hit heading into the final full week of the first quarter. A check-back of the now declining resistance at the 50-day moving average (5917) remains our base case, at which point the true health of the intermediate-term trajectory of stocks can be determined, but we must be prepared for the possibility of a weaker recovery from the lows than has been anticipated. Hesitation around the 200-day moving average certainly raises concerns among those running short, intermediate, and long-term strategies and a failure here would likely entice further desires to sell. There is a saying on Wall Street that “nothing good happens below the 200-day.” Markets that are showing greater resistance than support must be avoided, a framework, on an intermediate-term scale, we have not been able to confirm, yet. Momentum indicators on the daily chart have negatively diverged from price since the middle of last year, highlighting the waning enthusiasm investors had been expressing towards tech-heavy (Mag-7) benchmarks, like this, amidst extreme valuations. For now, the drawdown in the market can still be viewed as healthy and ordinary within a bull market, by any measure, but scrutiny is certainly warranted now that some critical levels were broken during the correction, such as 5700 on the S&P 500. Below this threshold, more dire scenarios for risk assets must be considered. We continue to monitor the potential impact of the apparent rotation in the market on our list of candidates in the market to Accumulate and to Avoid and we have adopted more of a neutral stance as segments that were previously noted as Accumulate candidates fall off (eg. Technology) and as areas to Avoid are added.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
