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Equity Clock - Market Outlook for March 14, 2023
Treasury bond prices are surging, particularly at the short and intermediate end of the curve.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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The Markets
Stocks attempted to stabilize on Monday as investors looked at the positives of banking regulators backstopping all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The S&P 500 Index closed down by just over one-tenth of one percent, failing to hold onto a gain after reaching back towards previously broken resistance at the 200-day moving average (3940). As highlighted last week, this is no longer an equity market that is showing greater signs of support than resistance, presenting a risky backdrop as we progress through this period between the middle of March and the end of April that is traditionally supposed to be favourable for stocks amidst the run-up to the Investment Retirement Account (IRA) contribution deadline on April 18th. A confluence of major moving averages in the range of 3900 to 4000 is now in a position of resistance. The significant hurdle on the downside that should be of focus for traders is the December low at 3764. Above this hurdle, the intermediate-term trend can still be deemed that of higher-highs and higher-lows stemming from the October bottom, allowing traders to be constructive on the long side; it would take a definitive move below this limit to trigger a more detrimental move down in the market as it would signal that the rising intermediate-term trend has been broken. Momentum indicators have started to retake positions below their middle lines, a characteristic of a bearish trend. The events of the past week are likely to skew the normal end of quarter mean reversion phenomenon given that portfolio managers are likely to not know, definitively, which areas of the market they are overweight or underweight heading into the end of the month until closer to that point. End of quarter rebalancing is still a tendency that could bring upon an opportunity for a quick trade, if so inclined, in some of those highly punished market segments from the past week, but it is best to wait for the dust to settle first.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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