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Equity Clock - Market Outlook for March 17, 2023
Despite the decline in the past week, the path of initial jobless claims is still reminiscent of what is typical at the start of economic recessions.
*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.
Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:
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The Markets
Stocks rebounded on Thursday as bank stocks stabilized following the extreme pressure of recent days. The S&P 500 Index closed with a gain of 1.76%, ending just below short-term resistance at the declining 20-day moving average. The short-term variable hurdle remains in a position to cap the still negative short-term path of lower-lows and lower-highs stemming from the early February peak. But it is the important level of support on the downside at December the lows that we are most interested in. A break below 3764 would violate the intermediate path of higher-highs and higher-lows and would inevitably draw in the next wave of selling pressures. Momentum indicators for the large-cap benchmark have already broken those December lows, hinting of the same for price, and various benchmarks that are heavy with cyclical exposure (eg. the Dow Jones Industrial Average) have similarly broken their December low hurdle. While the debate can be made pertaining to the intermediate path of the benchmark, there remains sufficient evidence that this market is no longer being supported given the events of recent days and this is a risky backdrop to consider adding equity exposure, despite the positive seasonal tendencies that are normal over the next month and a half.
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Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:
S&P 500 Index
TSE Composite
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